Canadian mortgage rate forecast 2027

Published forecasts

Each row is one official economics publication. The number is the figure that publication states for the end of 2027, or for the fourth quarter of 2027, as the basis column says. A blank cell means that publication does not state the figure. Nothing here is filled in from a later note, a different PDF, or a guess about the size of a hike. Compiled October 23, 2026.

• RBC: RBC Economics' October 13, 2026 table also has the overnight rate at 2.25% at the end of Q4 2026, then 2.50%, 2.75%, and 3.00% through the first three quarters of 2027.
• TD: The page dates the forecast to September 2026 and says the figures are end-of-period. TD holds the overnight target at 2.25% through the 2027 quarters in that table.
• Scotiabank: The October 13, 2026 snapshot publishes an end-of-period policy rate and does not publish a Canada 5-year yield. The same table has the end-2026 Canada policy rate at 2.50%.
• BMO: Douglas Porter's October 13, 2026 Rates Scenario marks the overnight target as end of period and the bond yields in that block as averages. The overnight target stays at 2.25% through the 2027 columns in the table.
• CIBC: This is the June 24, 2026 forecast update. A later CIBC economics note checked on October 23, 2026 did not replace this table with a newer end-2027 overnight rate, so the June table is the figure shown, with its date.
• Desjardins: The October 22, 2026 outlook says Desjardins expects a first Bank of Canada increase at the October 2026 decision and another in January 2027. It does not state the size of those increases, an end-2027 policy rate, or a 5-year yield.
• National Bank: The October 2026 monitor's quarterly path has the target at 2.50% in Q4 2026, 2.75% in Q1 2027, and 3.00% from Q2 2027 through Q4 2027. The spot column is dated October 13, 2026, with the target at 2.25%.

What this site's data shows

On 2026-10-22, the Government of Canada 5-year benchmark yield was 3.50%. The lowest 5-year fixed in the October 26, 2026 rate file, 4.34% at ATB Financial, sits 0.84 percentage points above that yield. The Big Five median uninsured 5-year fixed is 5.14%, 1.64 percentage points above the same yield.

In the 30 days from September 27, 2026 to October 26, 2026, 22 lenders finished with a higher published 5-year fixed and 0 finished lower, across 58 advertised-rate changes. The dated log is the rate-change tracker. The yield series and the chart are on the bond-yield page.

Scenarios, not a site forecast

If big-bank prime kept today's 2.20 percentage-point gap over the overnight target, the published policy-rate range above would line up with a prime of 4.45% to 5.45%. That is the same arithmetic as the opening sentences. It assumes the banks keep the spread. It is not a prediction that they will.

The published 5-year yields in the table run from 3.05% to 3.55%. If the lowest 5-year fixed kept today's spread of 0.84 percentage points over the bond, those yields would line up with a mortgage rate of 3.89% to 4.39%. Scotiabank and Desjardins do not state a 5-year yield in the publications used here, so they are outside that range. The spread can narrow or widen. This is a scenario, labelled as one.

Desjardins' October 22, 2026 outlook says it expects a first increase at the October 2026 decision and another in January 2027. It does not state how large those increases are, so this page does not turn that sentence into a policy-rate number. CIBC's end-2027 figures are from the June 24, 2026 forecast update, which is older than the October tables from the other banks.