Below-the-Line Mortgage Rate Report: October 2026
As of October 3, 2026, the median 5-year variable rate self-reported by Canadian borrowers online is 3.55% (N = 162) and the median 5-year fixed rate is 4.25% (N = 62). 95% of 5-year variable reports sit below the Big-5 posted median.
Andrew
Rate Analyst
Posted mortgage rates and the rates people actually receive are not the same number. This October 2026 report compares rates self-reported by Canadian borrowers online with the posted rates in our October 3, 2026 snapshot. The figures below are read from that file. They are self-reported, unverified, and not a mortgage offer.
Counting every insured status over the 30 days ending October 3, 2026, the median 5-year fixed report is 4.25% (N = 62) and the median 5-year variable report is 3.55% (N = 162). 98% of the 5-year fixed reports are below the Big-5 posted median of 4.90%, and 95% of the 5-year variable reports are below 4.05%. Prime assumed for variable effective rates is 4.45%.
What the medians say
- Among insured and uninsured products with at least 10 reports, the widest gap versus Big-5 posted rates is 5-year fixed · uninsured: the reported median is 4.30% (N = 19), 0.70 pts below the Big-5 posted median of 5.00%.
- Counting every insured status, the median 5-year fixed rate people report is 4.25% (N = 62) and the median 5-year variable rate is 3.55% (N = 162). 98% of those 5-year fixed reports are below the Big-5 posted median of 4.90%, and 95% of 5-year variable reports are below 4.05%.
- The lowest reported median we can publish (N at least 10) is 3.50% on 5-year variable · insured (N = 22).
- At TD Bank, the widest gap we can publish is 3-year fixed: posted 5.15% versus a reported median of 4.10% (N = 24), 1.05 pts below that bank's own posted rate.
Reported rates versus posted rates
5-year fixed · uninsured
N = 19
Reported 4.30% · lowest posted 4.30% (RFA Bank) · Big-5 5.00% · 0.70 pts below Big-5
5-year fixed · insured
N = 7 · small sample
Reported 4.15% · lowest posted 4.15% (ATB Financial) · Big-5 4.80% · 0.70 pts below Big-5
5-year variable · uninsured
N = 38
Reported 3.60% · lowest posted 3.60% (Equitable Bank) · Big-5 4.10% · 0.50 pts below Big-5
5-year variable · insured
N = 22
Reported 3.50% · lowest posted 3.45% (Meridian Credit Union) · Big-5 3.80% · 0.30 pts below Big-5
3-year fixed · uninsured
N = 44
Reported 4.10% · lowest posted 4.35% (ATB Financial) · Big-5 4.80% · 0.70 pts below Big-5
3-year fixed · insured
N = 9 · small sample
Reported 4.10% · lowest posted 4.25% (ATB Financial)
3-year variable · uninsured
N = 8 · small sample
Reported 3.65% · lowest posted 4.05% (Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce) · Big-5 4.05% · 0.40 pts below Big-5
2-year fixed · uninsured
N = 5 · small sample
Reported 4.10% · lowest posted 4.35% (Tangerine) · Big-5 4.95% · 0.85 pts below Big-5
Chart includes cells with N at least 5. Rows under N = 10 are labeled small sample and are omitted from the table.
Chart data
| Product | N | Reported median | Lowest posted | Big-5 posted median | Vs Big-5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year fixed · uninsured | 19 | 4.30% | 4.30% (RFA Bank) | 5.00% | 0.70 pts below |
| 5-year fixed · insured (small sample) | 7 | 4.15% | 4.15% (ATB Financial) | 4.80% | 0.70 pts below |
| 5-year variable · uninsured | 38 | 3.60% | 3.60% (Equitable Bank) | 4.10% | 0.50 pts below |
| 5-year variable · insured | 22 | 3.50% | 3.45% (Meridian Credit Union) | 3.80% | 0.30 pts below |
| 3-year fixed · uninsured | 44 | 4.10% | 4.35% (ATB Financial) | 4.80% | 0.70 pts below |
| 3-year fixed · insured (small sample) | 9 | 4.10% | 4.25% (ATB Financial) | — | — |
| 3-year variable · uninsured (small sample) | 8 | 3.65% | 4.05% (Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce) | 4.05% | 0.40 pts below |
| 2-year fixed · uninsured (small sample) | 5 | 4.10% | 4.35% (Tangerine) | 4.95% | 0.85 pts below |
Where 5-year reports land
5-year fixed
N = 62
5-year fixed, N = 62. Reported median 4.25%. 98% of reports are below the Big-5 posted median of 4.90%.
- Reported median 4.25%
- Lowest posted 4.15% (ATB Financial)
- Big-5 posted median 4.90%
5-year variable
N = 162
5-year variable, N = 162. Reported median 3.55%. 95% of reports are below the Big-5 posted median of 4.05%.
- Reported median 3.55%
- Lowest posted 3.25% (Butler Mortgage)
- Big-5 posted median 4.05%
Week by week
- 5-year fixed reported median
- 5-year variable reported median
- Big-5 5-yr fixed 4.90%
- Lowest 5-yr fixed 4.15%
- Big-5 5-yr variable 4.05%
- Lowest 5-yr variable 3.25%
Dashed lines are today's posted benchmarks for 5-year products across insured statuses (lowest fixed: ATB Financial; lowest variable: Butler Mortgage). Weeks under N = 5 are left off the line.
| Week starting | 5-year fixed median | Fixed N | 5-year variable median | Variable N |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 3 | 4.55% | 5 | 3.60% | 17 |
| Aug 10 | 4.00% | 5 | 3.55% | 20 |
| Aug 17 | 4.20% | 8 | 3.55% | 11 |
| Aug 24 | 4.30% | 7 | 3.60% | 25 |
| Aug 31 | 4.25% | 7 | 3.60% | 36 |
| Sep 7 | 4.10% | 14 | 3.55% | 23 |
| Sep 14 | 4.05% | 15 | 3.50% | 23 |
| Sep 21 | 4.30% | 13 | 3.50% | 47 |
| Sep 28 | 4.30% | 15 | 3.55% | 45 |
By big bank
TD Bank · 5-year fixed
N = 6 · small sample
Reported 4.30% · posted 5.35% · 1.05 pts below posted
TD Bank · 5-year variable
N = 31
Reported 3.60% · posted 4.25% · 0.65 pts below posted
TD Bank · 3-year fixed
N = 24
Reported 4.10% · posted 5.15% · 1.05 pts below posted
Royal Bank of Canada · 5-year variable
N = 9 · small sample
Reported 3.55% · posted 3.95% · 0.40 pts below posted
Royal Bank of Canada · 3-year fixed
N = 16
Reported 4.10% · posted 4.80% · 0.70 pts below posted
Scotiabank · 5-year fixed
N = 7 · small sample
Reported 4.25% · posted 4.90% · 0.65 pts below posted
Rows with N under 10 are labeled small sample. Comparisons without a posted rate in the snapshot are left off the chart.
How to use this
If a renewal letter is above the reported median for your term, that is a reason to ask for a better number, not a guarantee you will get the median. Insured status is often missing from the reports, so compare like with like when you can. Cells are published only when N is at least 10. Rates on the charts are rounded to the nearest 0.05.
The full table, the distribution, and the weekly series live on the real mortgage rates page. To place one offer on the distribution, use the renewal offer checker. For the conversation with your bank, read how much below posted people negotiate. Bank-level gaps for TD, RBC, CIBC, BMO, and Scotiabank are on each lender page when the sample is large enough.
Posted rates move with the snapshot. The community medians move when the file is replaced. The rules for collection, medians, the prime assumption, and the N threshold are on the methodology page.
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