The 2027 renewal wave: what 2022 borrowers face

Five-year terms signed in 2022 come up for renewal in 2027, and 2022 was not one rate: the Bank of Canada's conventional five-year posted rate went from 4.79% in January to 6.49% in October, while the rates chartered banks actually advanced on uninsured five-year-and-over fixed mortgages went from 2.61% in January to 5.22% in December. A borrower who signed near the January average faces a higher payment at the rates in today's file; a borrower who signed near the December average may not.

That split is why a single "payment shock" percentage misleads. OSFI's 2026-27 Annual Risk Outlook says that as of January 2026, 3.1 million mortgages, 52% of the total, would renew by the end of 2027. Of those, 1.3 million, 22% of all mortgages, are fixed-rate loans or variable-rate loans with fixed payments renewing for the first time since they were originated in the low-rate period of 2021 and 2022. OSFI expects material monthly payment increases for that group. The Bank's 2026 Financial Stability Report uses a different frame: over the twelve months from that report, the last of the five-year fixed-payment mortgages taken out in the pandemic, about 12% of outstanding mortgages, would see payments rise by about 15% on average. The Bank's figure uses market expectations as of May 19, 2026. It is an average across a cohort, not the change from 2.61% to one special in October 2026.

CMHC's Fall 2025 Residential Mortgage Industry Report counted 1.15 million mortgages coming up in 2026 and 940,000 scheduled for 2027. CMHC's own illustration of the earlier book is an average uninsured five-year fixed rate of 2.36% in July 2020 against 3.95% in July 2025. Those two months are not 2022. They are a warning against grabbing the nearest low number and calling it the rate you signed. The 2026 renewal playbook is the shopping sequence for the cohort maturing now. This page is the one maturing next.

The weekly posted series for the conventional five-year mortgage, V80691335, is the most typical posted rate at the six major chartered banks. It was 4.79% on January 5, 2022 and every Wednesday through April 13, then 4.99% on April 20, 5.39% on May 25, 5.64% on June 15, 6.04% on June 22, 6.14% on July 27, and 6.49% on October 19. It was still 6.49% on December 28. On October 21, 2026 the same series was 6.19%. Posted is the shelf, not the discounted commitment, and it feeds many interest-rate differentials if you break early. The posted versus discounted guide is that mechanism.

The series that is closer to a contract rate is the volume-weighted average of funds advanced by chartered banks: new credit, draws, renewals, and refinances, in Canadian dollars, to households. Credit unions are not in it. "Five years and over" is every fixed term of at least five years, not a pure five-year bucket. For uninsured mortgages that average was 2.61% in January 2022, 3.70% in June, and 5.22% in December. The insured fixed averages were 2.52%, 3.56%, and 5.06%. The discount to the posted shelf was enormous in January, when 4.79% posted sat beside a 2.61% uninsured average, and it was much smaller by December, when 6.49% posted sat beside 5.22%.

Variable averages followed prime. The weekly prime series was 2.45% on January 5, 2022 and 6.45% on December 14. The daily target was 0.25% on January 4 and 4.25% on December 8, after the steps dated March 3, April 14, June 2, July 14, September 8, October 27, and December 8 in the daily series. Uninsured variable funds advanced averaged 1.50% in January, 3.17% in June, and 6.14% in December. Insured variable averages were 1.47%, 3.10%, and 6.03%. A January 2022 variable and a December 2022 variable are different 2027 renewals.

Today's comparison on this page is not the 6.19% posted rate. It is the median of the lowest uninsured 5-year fixed rate at each lender in data/rates.json on 2026-10-27: 5.09%, across 23 lenders. The lowest of those lender rows is 4.59% and the highest is 6.51%. RBC's own uninsured 5-year fixed special in that file is 5.14%. Reported medians are another dataset. The file dated October 26, 2026 shows a rounded 5-year fixed median of 4.35% and a rounded 5-year variable median of 3.60%, insured status not stated. Those figures are self-reported by Canadian borrowers online. They are on real mortgage rates. Do not average them into the Bank's 2022 series or into the scrape. Live shelves are the 5-year fixed, variable, insured, and uninsured pages.

A 25-year amortization that started in 2022 has about 20 years left in 2027. The tables use 20 years and the balance at renewal, not the amount you borrowed. The formula is this site's monthly formula, the same one as the payment calculator. A lender's semi-annual compounding changes the dollars slightly. The gap is the point.

At 2.61% versus 5.09%, a $500,000 balance goes from $2,676 to $3,325. The five-year column multiplies the monthly gap by 60. It is not extra interest, because part of a higher payment is principal. Keeping the remaining amortization, rather than stretching it, pays the higher amount and leaves less owing at the next maturity. Stretching the years is a refinance. It lowers the payment, raises the interest, and at a federally regulated lender it is no longer a straight switch.

The second table stops the wave being one number. On $500,000 and 20 years, the January 2022 uninsured average renews higher, the June average renews higher by less, and the December average renews slightly lower against this file's median. Slightly lower is not a promise. The median is 5.09% and RBC's uninsured special is 5.14%. A household that locked in late 2022, after posted rates had reached 6.49% and the uninsured average had reached 5.22%, is not the household OSFI means by the 2021 and 2022 low-rate vintages. Know which month you signed.

The Bank's "about 15%" is an average across the remaining five-year fixed-payment pandemic mortgages, on a rate path marked to May 19, 2026. The January row is one month's chartered-bank average against one October 2026 median, on a balance this page chose. Both can be true. Put the renewal letter into the renewal offer checker and the renewal calculator. The checker compares a rate with reports. A renewal at maturity usually has no penalty.

Hold the balance at $500,000 so the only thing that moves is the 2022 average. The payment change in the last column is against 5.09% from the rate file, not against the 6.19% posted rate. A posted-rate renewal would look worse for every row. The switching guide is the comparison with another lender once the penalty is zero.

Borrowers who took a variable rate with a fixed payment in early 2022 had a different five years. The payment was set at a low rate, then prime rose from 2.45% to 6.45% inside that year. FCAC's trigger rate is the point where the fixed payment only covers interest. Past it, unpaid interest is added to the balance, and the lender can require a higher payment, a lump sum, or a conversion. OSFI treats this product, a VRMFP, as higher risk. In the same Annual Risk Outlook, VRMFP originations and renewals were 36% of mortgage flows in December 2025, close to the 41% share of March 2022.

The illustration uses the Bank's averages, not a made-up contract. A payment at 1.50% on $500,000 over 25 years is $2,000 a month. Set equal to one month of simple interest on that opening balance, the payment covers interest only up to about 4.80%. The December 2022 uninsured variable average was 6.14%. One month of interest on the same opening balance at that rate is about $2,558, roughly $559 more than the payment. The real December balance would have been a little lower, and the lender's trigger uses its own compounding, so 4.80% is not the number in your disclosure. The shape is the point: a payment built at the January 2022 variable average does not cover a contract rate at the December 2022 variable average.

If that is your mortgage, 2027 is not the first time the math has mattered. The balance may be higher than a normal amortization would have left it. The Bank of Canada guide walks through trigger rates with a current special, and the lock-in guide is the mid-term conversion. Prime on this site, after the holds through September 2026, is 4.45%, with the target at 2.25%. That is not the prime of December 2022.

There is no statute that says you must start at 180 days. FCAC says a federally regulated lender has to send the renewal statement at least 21 days before the term ends. Twenty-one days is enough time to sign the letter. It is a poor time to see whether another lender will take the file.

BMO will renew with BMO as early as 180 days before the end of the term without a penalty. Earlier than that, a prepayment charge can apply. TD recommends starting a switch about 120 days before maturity. TD also says you can renew 120 days early without a prepayment charge, and that renewing earlier can cost the charge. A rate hold expires on the date printed on it. RBC's public pages talk about holds of up to 120 days on a pre-approval. That is a purchase clock, not automatically a renewal clock.

Inside the window, get the balance, the maturity date, the remaining amortization, the penalty method, and whether the charge is a standard charge or a collateral charge. Price a same-balance, same-amortization renewal against a straight switch. Since November 21, 2024, OSFI has not required the prescribed qualifying rate on an uninsured straight switch at renewal when the amount and the amortization do not increase. Adding money, or stretching the years, puts the stress test back. The stress test guide is the threshold and the qualifier is the arithmetic. Insured straight switches were already outside that test. The CMHC calculator belongs in the file only for a new high-ratio purchase.

Keeping the remaining amortization, and paying the higher amount, is the clean renewal. A shorter term because you think rates will fall is a view, not a fact the Bank has published. A longer amortization should be priced as extra interest. If the fixed-payment variable balance has grown, deal with that before you argue about an eighth of a point. The penalties guide applies if someone offers to blend you early: those months at a January 2022 rate are the valuable ones.

Posted rates are V80691335. Funds-advanced averages are the Bank's chartered-bank lending table. The 3.1 million and 1.3 million figures are OSFI's outlook as of January 2026. The 12% and 15% figures are the Bank's May 2026 stability report, using market expectations as at May 19, 2026. The 940,000 count is CMHC's Fall 2025 report. Today's median is this site's rate file.

• Bank of Canada, posted rates at the major chartered banks. Conventional 5-year: 4.79% in January 2022, 6.49% from October 19, 2022, 6.19% on October 21, 2026.
• Bank of Canada, interest rates charged on funds advanced. Uninsured fixed, five years and over: 2.61% in January 2022, 3.70% in June, 5.22% in December.
• OSFI, Annual Risk Outlook 2026-27. 3.1 million renewals by the end of 2027, including 1.3 million first renewals from the 2021-22 low-rate vintages.
• Bank of Canada, Financial Stability Report 2026, households. About 12% of mortgages, average payment increase about 15%, on expectations as at May 19, 2026.
• CMHC, Residential Mortgage Industry Report, Fall 2025. 940,000 mortgages scheduled for 2027.